Surprising Partners Among Tehran's Layer of Alliances

The Guardian / Julian Borger, Diplomatic Editor .


When Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, vowed this week to hit back at American interests around the world if Iran was attacked, it was no empty threat. More than at any time in the life of the Islamic republic, Iran is positioned to inflict significant pain on the US and its allies in many places at the same time. US stumbling in the Middle East has strengthened and emboldened Iran. On top of an array of patron-client relationships with powerful Shia groups, like Hizbullah in Lebanon, the Badr brigades and the Mahdi army in Iraq, Tehran has built a new layer of alliances with some more surprising partners among the Sunni jihadists. It has forged a relationship with Hamas in Gaza, and even appears to have developed links with the Taliban. In the wake of anecdotal accounts of would-be Iranian jihadists turning up in Afghanistan, western intelligence sources believe official contacts have been made between the erstwhile enemies. Iranian intelligence is thought to be providing some money and training to the Taliban and giving safe passage for jihadists travelling from the Iraqi to the Afghan front. Seth Jones, a terrorism expert at the Rand Corporation thinktank, who has just returned from Afghanistan, said: "There are indications the Iranians have opened contacts with insurgent groups, including the Quetta Shura (the Taliban command council for southern Afghanistan)". He said there was so far no evidence Iran had supplied what the Taliban need most, modern surface-to-air missiles. He also stressed that Iranian backing for the Taliban was barely significant compared to the support it enjoyed in Pakistan, while Tehran enjoyed strong relations with the Karzai government in Kabul. "What Iran in my view is doing is pursuing a hedging strategy," he said. "The Iranian government would prefer to keep a close relationship with the Afghan government, but also wants to protect itself from a strike from the US or Israel." Iran could make life more difficult for the US, Britain and their allies in southern Afghanistan. "If the Taliban got surface-to-air missiles, it would really change things in Afghanistan." What was unfolding in Afghanistan was part of a broader contest, in which both sides were seeking a more lethal grip on their opponent as insurance against attack. "There is a struggle for influence between US and Iran right across south-west Asia, in which main theatres of operation are Lebanon, Afghanistan and Iraq," said Afshin Molavi, an Iranian specialist at the International Crisis Group (ICG). In that struggle, Iran national interests rise above sectarian or ideological affiliation. Meanwhile, the long-standing relationship with Hizbullah offers Iran the potential to threaten US interests much further afield. Tehran helped set up the Shia militia after the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982, and it has since developed a global presence stretching as far as Lebanese communities in Latin America.
In the event of an attack on Iran, it could offer Tehran a potent network for reprisals.
But Iran's capacity to hit back is limited to the readiness of its clients and partners to take on the US. In recent years, Hizbullah has opted to focus on its role in Lebanon and its conflict with Israel. "The Mahdi army and Moqtada al-Sadr are willing to take money from Iranians, but he is an Iraqi nationalist with no pro-Iranian proclivities," said Joost Hiltermann, a Jordan-based analyst for the ICG. Furthermore, Tehran must calibrate any retaliation to avoid bringing the region down on its head. It may support the Taliban, but does not want to see the Sunni extremist movement back in power on its eastern border.

Tehran fears social conflict if sanctions imposed

La Monde report says Tehran fears social conflict if sanctions imposed /dpa German Press Agency / Published: Saturday January 20, 2007




Paris- Iran fears internal destabilization through social conflict if the United Nations imposes sanctions on Tehran over its controversial nuclear programme, according to an article to be published in Sunday's edition of the French newspaper Le Monde. The foreign and defence committees of the Iranian parliament presented the consequences of an embargo in a 100-page report in September 2006, the article says.
Tehran has officially reacted to the decision to impose sanctions by the UN Security Council in December by threatening to speed up its uranium-enrichment programme.Eighy-five per cent of Iran's export income comes from oil, and the country depends on refined products like petrol for 40 per cent of its imports.

The newspaper describes the country was a "giant on feet of clay."

Tehran is most afraid of a combination of a halt to the delivery of refined products, a boycott of Iranian oil and the freezing of Iranian assets abroad. One litre of petrol currently costs 800 rials (9 cents) in Tehran. The report was presented to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and a small circle of officials, Le Monde writes. If sanctions take hold, Tehran could be forced to reassess its national priorities and spend large amounts of resources to prevent a social revolution.
Members of the government have expressed the fear that social unrest could weaken internal stability.

Sunni-Shiite talks begin with spat over Iran, Iraq

A conference on inter-Islamic dialogue has got off to a heated start in Doha with a top Sunni cleric attacking Shiites and Iran over the continuing sectarian violence in war-torn Iraq.
Sheikh Yussef Qardawi accused Shiites in Iraq and neighbouring Iran Saturday of harbouring militias that kill and displace Sunni Arabs in Iraq, which is wracked by sectarian killings that claim scores of lives daily.
"The Sunnis are being driven out of their regions. And now they (militias) are trying to rid Baghdad of Sunnis. We should not remain silent," he told the opening session of a conference on dialogue between Islamic schools of thought.
"Death squads and militas are killing people in their own homes... They should be disowned by the Shiites," he said.
Qardawi, who heads the international federation of Muslim scholars, said he had called upon Shiite religious leaders in Iraq and Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to intervene to stop the killings.
"Iran has influence in Iraq. It can stop this sedition and put out a fire that could destroy everything," he said in a clear criticism of Tehran over its role in Iraq.

The Egyptian cleric, who also holds Qatari nationality, condemned what he described as "attempts to covert (Sunnis) into Shiism" in countries that are predominantly Sunni.
"It is not permissible for a sect to try to spread in a country that is dominated by the other sect," he said.
"What benefit do you get if you enter a Sunni country like Egypt, Sudan, Morocco or Algeria... and try to convert people into the Shiite sect?" he asked.
"You may attract a hundred or two, but you will be sowing sedition in the country and the people there will hate and curse you," he added, citing talks he held with leading Iranian scholar Ayatollah Mohammad Ali Taskhiri.
But Taskhiri, who was also present at the opening session, blamed the escalating tension between Sunnis and Shiites on the "real enemy" of both, an allusion to Israel and the United States.
"There is a cunning plot to turn Muslims away from their real enemy to an illusive one... the Islamic Republic of Iran," said Taskhiri, who heads Iran's World Forum for Enhancing Relations Among Islamic Schools of Thought.
"Muslims forget Israel and the dangers of colonialism, while Sunnis perceive the Shiites -- and vice versa -- as the biggest challenge... tearing the body of this (Islamic) nation into pieces," he added.
Tashkiri accused Israel of stoking the escalating Sunni-Shiite tension in Iraq and Lebanon, claiming that the "enemy is exploiting normal scholarly differences."
Predominantly Shiite Iran has been accused of backing Shiite militias in Iraq that are believed to be behind daily killings and kidnappings of Sunni Arabs.
Lebanon's Shiite Hezbollah movement, currently leading an opposition campaign against the Western-backed government of Prime Minister Fuad Siniora, is also accused of being remote-controlled by Tehran.
Other delegates at the Doha forum warned against political differences fueling communal conflict.
"We should avoid differences between schools of thought which are being exploited for political purposes," Qatar's deputy premier Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah said.
"The facts show that the wedge being driven (between Muslim sects) is political and has nothing to do with religion.

Coalition of the Concerned Grows in Iran HA HA, LOL....

Financial Times reports OF A COMEDY SCENE from Tehran that there are some very YELLOWISH STAINED PANTS walking about there.

Here is How FT describes it with some help from me!

A new political coalition is emerging in Iran in response to growing US pressure, especially over Tehran's nuclear programme, and in concern over the radical approach of President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad in both foreign and domestic policy. It stretches from reformists and even secular intellectuals to fundamentalists, and results from a belief that Iran may be facing the most serious challenge of its modern history.

Behzad Nabavi, a leading reformist (Piss Artist) has said that, new informal re groupings are being (groomed ) formed based on concern . . .  over the fate of the country and the regime, and a common sense of danger is overcoming the differences over democracy and cultural issues.

Bullocks. WHAT THEY ARE REALLY SAYING IS TO LETS PUT AWAY THE DIFFERENCES OVER DEMOCRACY AND CULTURAL/RELIGIOUS ISSUES AND SAVE THE REGIME.)

Although it remains unclear what direct impact this so-called coalition of the concerned can have on nuclear policy or Iran’s relationship with Iraq, for instance, its aim is to put Tehran's case more clearly internationally and perhaps craft conciliatory measures (CAP IN HAND START TO KISS BUSH`S ASS). It also wants Iran’s supreme leader to rein in Mr Ahmadi-Nejad. (ANTARI-COMMUNIST-NEJAD.)

A regime insider ( MALIJACK ) have said that they ( IRI ) are facing the most serious political challenges domestically and internationally in THEIR history and that the ruling clerics may be forced into compromises that even the Qajar kings [1795-1925] didn't make.” Iranians remember the Qajar period for weakness, stagnation and humiliating concessions to great powers, including ceding territory to Russia and control of fin­ance and oil to the British. (BEING WEAK, THEY WERE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CLERGY, VERY SIMILAR TO THIS LOT)

The coalition is gathered partly around two former presidents, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, (Rasman Jani with an international warrant for his arrest for complicity to terrorism and murder) a conservative pragmatist, and the reformist Mohammad Khatami (the laughing Don Quito-matador facing more or less the same charges and maybe more).

With the UN resolution and US military build-up it has now down on them the feeling that Washington's aim is not just stopping Iran’s uranium enrichment but overthrowing its regime. Sen­ior figures argue, the national interest cannot tolerate an inexperienced president whose rhetoric is inflammatory. (as though this poor idiot could set any agenda by himself or has the power to decide on anything important). (The BLAME GAME HAS STARTED).

Rasman jani, who has been at the centre of Iranian politics since the 1979 revolution and the CRIMINAL 1980-88 war with Iraq, (and is implicated with all the crimes committed in the last 28 years of IRI), repeatedly gives warning that Iran must be “careful” and not fuel “US adventurism”. Such wariness is apparently shared by Ayatollah Ali Khameni, the supreme leader, who waited two weeks before public comment on the UN resolution.

Mohammad Atrianfar, another (MALIJACK) boot licker has said that, “The regime's strategic policy remains avoiding confrontation because the US has the upper hand, even though Iran is being treated unjustly,”. (that makes me laugh). Some of Iran’s most seasoned politicians and officials are propagating that the US and Israel seek nothing short of the country's break-up. (that old chestnut).

'I backed talks with the US for a long time but sadly I've reached the conclusion they want to cut Iran into pieces,” a diplomat said. (which diplomat? the kind that got nabbed in ARBIL?).They are now putting out the line that 'Iran is a multinational state with a variety of groups who feel discrimination by the majority Persians and Shia Muslims and are accusing Britain and the US of stirring unrest among Kurdish and Arab minorities in the north-west and oil-rich south " [as thought the mullah Mafia's haven`t done enough themselves).

The FT, quotes a senior reformist. (LOL) that, “The leaders of the Islamic revolution managed to maintain Iran’s territorial integrity at critical times, but I'm not sure they can do the same this time if they face the US’s destructive power,” (ha ha ha ).

While some insiders argue that although Mr Ahmadi-Nejad has little role in the nuclear issue, they worry that his rhetoric is taken seriously by the west ( HA HA ) and even welcomed by hard-liners in the US and Israel.

And now parts of the conservative media with KHA manie (ac) blessings have blamed Mr Ahmadi-Nejad for the UN resolution and for disrupting nuclear talks with Europe (THE FALL GUY) and the pragmatists from across the spectrum (the Todeh -Communist) are looking to Ali Larijani, Iran’s top security official, to revive talks with Javier Solana, the European Union foreign policy chief, that stalled last year.

They are encouraged by his response to the UN resolution. Facing reporters’ insistence on Wednesday that he clarify Iran’s position on the nuclear issue, Mr Larijani stressed the importance of a “thoughtful” rather than a “hasty” reaction. (BULLOCKS! ITS TOO LATE).

Criticism of the president have been encouraged by Mr Ahmadi-Nejad’s setback in elections last month. The emboldened approach appears designed to create a consensus that leads Kha menei (ac) to rein in – or even remove – the president. (GOOD RIDDANCE)

“The leader is still quiet about election results, (HE IS SICK AND ON MORPHINE) probably trying to analyse them, but he doesn't seem happy with Mr Ahmadi-Nejad any more,” said one insider (MALIJACK). “Mr Ahmadi-Nejad consults the leader less than any previous president but, if one day he ignores the leader's orders, he'll be finished within a week through impeachment by parliament.” (as though it has been any different at any other time).

Parliament is in uproar, ( the same parliament that was stuffed with %90 Basiji's and pasdars) accusing the government of gross mismanagement as prices and unemployment rise. But such a dramatic move as impeachment – unknown in the Islamic Republic's 28 years – would need Kha menei (ac)’s backing to succeed. ( he appoints them and he sacks them ) “Kha menei (ac) still doesn't believe the president should go,” said a former Iranian diplomat. ( NOT YET ANYWAY ) “And if the international crisis becomes more serious, the leader would not allow an impeachment that would make Iran look weak domestically.” ( SHUT THE BARN DOOR, THE HORSES HAVE BOLTED! YOU IDIOT).