Alliance For democracy In Iran

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Shahanshah Aryameher

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Thursday, March 13, 2008

NEWS CENTRAL

How Do You Like Your Conservatives?
Time is up for Iran.s election candidates. Campaigning finished at 8am on Thursday 13th March, leaving voters to consider how to cast their votes in parliamentary elections the next day. For many the choice is simple: vote conservative or ultra-conservative. Opposition reformists had hoped to capitalise on widespread discontent about the government.s mismanagement of the economy but the disqualification of thousands of their candidates is a severe blow. Instead the challenge to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.s hardliners will come from traditional conservatives.
The Rise and Rise of Iran's Guards
It has hardly been the most exciting election campaign in the history of the Islamic Republic of Iran. With many of the more liberal or reformist candidates disqualified, the conservatives look certain to consolidate control in the parliament. But this election could mark an important change in Iran. A crucial marker in the rising power of the military.
How Not to Deal with Iran
Wednesday's retirement of Adm. William Fallon may mean we're finally moving toward the right policy for dealing with Iran and its nuclear program before it's too late.
Fallon's Resignation Is Not Seen as Step Toward Attack on Iran
The abrupt resignation of the Pentagon's top Middle East commander has silenced one of the Bush administration's fiercest opponents of a unilateral military strike against Iran, yet top administration officials themselves do not see real prospects for military action before the end of President Bush's term, current and former U.S. officials say.
Tehran Police Chief Found with 6 Nude Prostitutes
TEHRAN -- Tehran's police chief has resigned following his arrest after being found naked in the company of six nude prostitutes in a local brothel. Reza Zarei stepped down from his post following the raid, reportedly ordered by Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi, chief of the judicial authorities, Ynetnews reported Wednesday.
Treasury Cracks Down on Bahrain Bank
WASHINGTON -- The Bush administration is imposing financial sanctions on a Bahrain bank the United States alleges is controlled by Iran's Bank Melli, which has been accused of providing support to Iran's nuclear program.
Voters Focus on Rising Cost of Living Ahead of Poll
Iranian politicians of all political affiliations have focused on the economy ahead of tomorrow's parliamentary poll as ordinary people struggle to pay for clothes and food in preparation for the New Year festivities
Iran Starts 'Treason' Inquiry Ahead Of Poll
Iran's hardline leadership today began a fresh crackdown against political opponents before elections to be held at the end of this week, announcing an investigation against a leading reformist for "treason".
All Ahmadinejad Has Done is Create Poverty
Until President Ahmadinejad's name is mentioned Mokhtar, an Iranian labourer, stands listlessly with his friends on a street corner in a blue-collar district of south Tehran. Suddenly he grows animated. He voted enthusiastically for Mr Ahmadinejad in 2005 because he had pledged to help the poor, he says. Now he feels so disillusioned that he will never vote again. “I will not pollute myself,” he declares.
Persian Gulf
Iraq's fate is uneasily linked to what passes for politics in Iran
Israel, Iran Practically At War
Immediately after the massacre of eight students in a yeshiva library in Jerusalem last week, speculation began within the Israeli security establishment and the media about who had dispatched the lone murderer. Was it Hamas? Hezbollah? Perhaps a new, unknown organization claiming to act on behalf of the "liberation" of the Galilee? In fact, the speculation was pointless. Regardless of the affiliation of the actual perpetrator, the ultimate responsibility for this attack, as for almost all the terror attacks on Israel in recent years, lies with Iran
Khomeini Granddaughter Slams Hard-Liners
TEHRAN, Iran -- She is a granddaughter of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, founder of the 1979 Islamic revolution, but Zahra Eshraghi has long been a leader of reformers seeking to liberalize Iran
US: Syria Backs Foreign Fighters in Iraq
WASHINGTON -- Despite increased counterterrorism efforts by Damascus, as much as 90 percent of the foreign fighters in Iraq cross the border from Syria, according to a Pentagon report that says Iran's support for Shiite militants also is hurting efforts to improve Iraq security.

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اينهم از رئيس پليس اخلاقی رژيم جمهوری اسلامی... هرچه بگندد نمکش زنندوای به روزی که بگندد نمک.شرکت در انتخابات یعنی اینکه ما رای میدهیم که مطیع رهبریم و آقای خامنه ای حق تسلط بر جان و مال و ناموس ما را دارد آِیا رفتن بپای صندوق رای تمرین جمهوریت است یا اینکه تن دادن به خفت وخاری اطاعت از ولایت مطلقه زور
آ نهائیکه به مردم میگویند بپای صندوق بروید حقیقت را به مردم نمی گویند
شرط اول کاندید شدن اطاعت از ولایت مطلقه فقیه ( زور ) است و وقتی که مردم رای میدهند در حقیقت برای خامنه ای خدمت گذار معین میکنند
هموطنان گرامی اگر در انتخابات شرکت کنیم نه تنها این حکومت خوشحال خواهد شد بلکه از این مسئله به نفع خود استفاده خواهد کرد و همه جا صحبت از حمایت مردم ایران از حاکمیت خود خواهد داشت در حالیکه اگر شرکت نکنیم دست کم کاری که حکومت خواسته انجام نداده ایم و این خودش یک مبارزه و یک پیروزی است. حال که با شرکت در این به اصطلاح انتخابات نمیتوانیم به هیچ نتیجه سودمندی برسیم با عدم شرکت در این انتخابات دست کم به خودمان و جهانیان ثابت خواهیم کرد این حکومت را قبول نداریم . این حکومت منتخب ما نیست و این حکومت حق ندارد از طرف مردم ایران صحبت کند . مگر از طرف مشتی اقلیت مذهبی که منافع خود رادر بقای این حکومت مسخره میبینند . مدتهاست بسیاری از مردم میگویند : ما این حکومت را نمیخواهیم ولی چه کاری از دست ما ساخته است ؟ جواب این سوال بسیار راحت است . ما میتوانیم در انتخابات شرکت نکنیم و این اولین قدم است . این از دست ما کاملا ساخته است . خیلی هم شدنی و ممکن است . در رسانه های حکومت تبلیغ میشود که شرکت در انتخابات یک وظیفه شرعی و دینی است . این دروغ بسیار بزرگ برای شستشوی مغزی مردم ایران قریب سی سال است که شنیده میشود . کسی که ایران را دوست دارد و کسی که در آرزوی سربلندی ایران است و کسیکه واقعا این حکومت را نمیخواهد و شایسته این سرزمین کهن نمیداند و حتی کسیکه خودش به دین اعتقاد کامل دارد ولی متوجه است که این حکومت بیشترین ضربه را به دین وارد آورده به هر حال خودش بخوبی وظیفه خود را میشناسد و میداند که وظیفه اش اینست که حکومت را تنها بگذارد و میداند که تنها باید حکومت را نفی کند . اولین گام در نفی این حکومت عدم شرکت در انتصاباتی است که یک کلاه برداری واقعی در ابعادی گسترده بیش نیست . میگویند اگر در انتخابات قبل شرکت میکردیم و به رفسنجانی رای میدادیم امروز احمدی نژاد مملکت را به این روز نیانداخته بود ! ای عزیزان کمی فکر کنیم . احمدی نژاد اولا قرار بود رئیس جمهور شود . دوما اگر رفسنجانی انتخاب میشد این حکومت گردن کلفت تر بود و در جهان حامیان بیشتری داشت در حالیکه ایران را به همین مقدار و حتی بیشتر از این حد میفروخت و به باد میداد در حالیکه احمدی نژاد دست کم بدون اینکه خودش و اربابانش بفهمند و شعور و درکش را داشته باشند با صحبتهای احمقانه و بی شرمانه اش دست کم آزادیخواهان دیگر ملل جهان را از خواب غفلت بیدار کرد و فضای جهانی در حمایت از اراده برای رهایی ایران از چنگال این حکومت را بدون اینکه خودش بفهد به نفع ملت ایران تغییر داد که این خود یک پیروزی عمده برای آزادیخواهان ایران محسوب میشود. این حکومت چهره واقعی خودش را بازتاب داد و این فرصت را ما مردم ایران برایش بوجود آوردیم البته با عدم شرکت در انتخابات و تنها گذاشتن این حکومت در انتخابات ریاست جمهوری اش . و اگر رفسنجانی بجای احمدی نژاد انتخاب شده بود دقیقا مثل امروز روزنامه ها و رسانه ها همچنان در چنگال حکومت و تحت سانسور بود و دانشجویان و ایراندوستان همچنان در بند گرفتار بودند . همچنان فرهنگ چک و لگد و مرگ بر این و آن زنده بود و مثل همین حالا حکومت در چنگال مشتی اقلیت آخوند و شارلاتان . علاوه بر تمام اینها کشورهای بسیاری هم در اروپا و سایر نقاط جهان دیگر مثل امروز خطر این حکومت را حس نکرده بودند و آنچه بر سر ایران و ایرانی میگذرد را درک نمیکردند . اینبار هم در انتخابات شرکت نخواهیم کرد و افتخار ما ایسنت که شرکت نخواهیم کرد و همچنان معتقدیم زمانی وقت شرکت در انتخابات خواهد بود که رفراندمی برای تعیین حکومت از اساس باشد و نه تعیین همان افرادی که خود حکومت از قبل تائید کرده است . با سپاس فراوان
سعید از حومه تهران
http://www.IranPressNews.com/

Iranian envoy reassures Japan of oil suppliesAFP - The Islamic Republic has denied Western accusations that is working on an atom bomb, saying it is for peaceful purposes and an inalienable right. ...
Zimbabwe: 'Iran to Assist Country's Educational, Cultural ...AllAfrica.com - Washington,USAThe Islamic Republic of Iran will continue to assist Zimbabwean educational and cultural institutions for the development and promotion of education and ...
Iranian official urges high turnoutPRESS TV - Tehran,IranThe Iranians will contribute to the reinforcement of the Islamic Republic with their high turnout, Ali-Reza Afshar said on Wednesday. ...
Apathy with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad rules IranTelegraph.co.uk - United KingdomCampaigning ends today in Iran for a general election in which the victory of the conservatives is assured. The inevitability of the result follows the ...
Iran eyes big turnout in parliament pollsAFP - TEHRAN (AFP) — Conservatives are Friday expected to tighten their grip on Iran's parliament in an election dismissed by the United States but seen by its ...
Iranian voices on the electionBBC News - UKInflation has been soaring since sanctions were applied against Iran, it's a big problem and I think it's going to get worse. People have problems finding ...
Iran's president wins only accolades in home townReuters Canada - Toronto,Ontario,CanadaBy Alistair Lyon, Special Correspondent ARADAN, Iran (Reuters) - Don't come to the sleepy market town where Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was born ...
Israel raises the ante against IranAsia Times Online - Kowloon,Hong KongBy Kaveh L Afrasiabi "We are in no danger at all of having an Iranian nuclear weapon dropped on us. We cannot say so too openly, however, because we have a ...
Iran accuses MP over TV interviewIran's intelligence minister accuses a leading reformist MP of treason, for talking to a US-funded television station.
Fallon's Resignation Is Not Seen as Step Toward Attack on IranWashington Post - United StatesInstead, absent an unforeseen precipitating event, the current policy of seeking multilateral diplomatic and economic sanctions against Iran as punishment ...
Peers lobby Smith to halt deportation of gay IranianIndependent - London,England,UKBy Robert Verkaik, Law Editor More than 60 peers have signed a letter to the Home Secretary urging the Government to halt the deportation of a gay Iranian ...
For Iranian Voters, It's the EconomyWashington Post - United StatesBy Thomas Erdbrink TEHRAN, March 12 -- As Iran prepares for parliamentary elections on Friday, voters find their choices largely limited to candidates who ...
New UN Security Council Sanctions against Iran via Dubious Data ...taz - GermanyIt stated that there was no evidence that Iran is involved with other than the peaceful use of nuclear energy. For a while that seemed to take the wind out ...
After they goNew Statesman - London,England,UKIran has pushed hard for this, in an attempt to keep the Iraqi government beholden to the Islamic Republic. Between the overt influence of Shia Iran and the ...
Attack on Iran will trigger Muslim furyPRESS TV - Tehran,IranWith the recently issued 1803 sanctions resolution against Iran, who is there to guarantee the forestalling of military action against the Islamic Republic, ...
White House: No Shift in Iran PolicyThe Associated Press - On camera and behind the scenes, the message was the same: The US is not poised to invade Iran, and the administration is not closer to a confrontation now ...
Reformists to sit out Iranian pollBBC News - UKIt was the last one as campaigning ended in Iran ahead of Friday's general election. But barely 100 people gathered in the private car-parking space under a ...
Sanctions aren't working, so what's next with Iran?Daily Star - Lebanon - Beirut,LebanonBy Bennett Ramberg The approval of fresh sanctions on Iran marks the third time that the United Nations Security Council has been galvanized to stem the ...
White House denies Bush stifling dissent on IranReuters - USAAdministration officials also dismissed the notion Fallon's abrupt departure meant the United States was any closer to military action against Iran, ...
Israel, the United States and Iran: The Tipping-point
March 13, 2008 OpenDemocracy Paul Rogers
The resignation of Admiral William Fannon, the commander of United States Central Command (Centcom) on 11 March 2008 brings the issue of a confrontation between the George W Bush administration and Iran suddenly back on the security agenda. Most analysts had thought that the risk of war had subsided with the publication on on 3 December 2007 of the US national-intelligence estimate (NIE), which concluded that Iran was probably not now developing nuclear weapons. There were various qualifications and provisos in that report - Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities - but it still appeared to limit the administration's war option by removing the main argument. Fallon's resignation followed a magazine profile that made clear his differences with the president and Dick Cheney, principally his own robust view that war with Iran would be counterproductive to US security interests (see "The Man Between War and Peace", Esquire, 11 March 2008). Nevertheless, most opinion in European capitals and in the US state department, and even in many parts of the Pentagon, is that Fallon is broadly right. So has anything really changed?The war scenarioAn earlier column in this series summarised the dangers of war: they include the wide-ranging Iranian options for responding in Iraq and western Gulf states, the potential for a rapid rise in oil prices, the likelihood that Iran really would go all out for nuclear weapons - thus necessitating further US bombing campaigns (see "America and Iran: the spark of war", 20 September 2007). The conclusion was that the awareness of such concerns may well have a salutary effect on the more hawkish elements in Washington, but that other factors might still lead to a war. These could include a deliberate act of aggression by one of two groups: Revolutionary Guard radicals anxious to re-establish their standing within Iranian society, or attack by Israel on Iran's nuclear facilities (strongly supported as that would be the more militant backers of Israel within the Bush administration).All of these issues are equally relevant six months after this analysis was presented. Admiral Fallon's precipitous disappearance from the scene now raises an old question in a new context: does it make war with Iran more likely during the closing months of the Bush administration? The answer is a guarded yes - with the qualification that Fallon's resignation is not itself the main factor in shaping the outcom, since it remains unlikely that the Bush administration would deliberately and openly start a war. Rather, war - if it occurs - would stem from other events (see "Iran and Pakistan: danger signals", 10 January 2008). Any attack on Iran that occurred before November 2008 would have a considerable impact on the presidential election. A scenario of the following kind illustrates the point. A conflict develops in September or October and is raging in the run-up to the election on 4 November. At this stage, the main involvement will be by the United States air force supported by the US navy. The overstretched army and marine corps will have little initial involvement. The war, it's important to emphasise, might not have been started by the Bush administration - it could been triggered in some other way. But whatever its origin, US tactics would quickly acquire a familiar aspect. In the war's opening few weeks, extensive US bombing raids would cripple Iranian nuclear facilities, air defences, command-and-control systems and key facilities of the navy and Revolutionary Guard. At this stage, US military power would be so massive that Washington would appear to be "winning". This was the situation in the first eight weeks of the Afghanistan war in late 2001, and in the first six weeks of the Iraq war up to Bush's "mission accomplished" speech on 1 May 2003 (see "The long war", 3 April 2003). A US war against Iran, and especially one that is ostensibly not of its own choosing, will grab all the domestic as well as global headlines as the election reaches its peak. The crisis will reinforce the argument that an essential qualification of America's new president is an impeccable military background to guide the country safely through. Step forward the obvious choice: Senator John McCain (who plans to burnish his security credentials during a trip to Europe and the middle east in the coming week). This scenario does not mean that a war will be manufactured by the US leadership - but it does imply that if a conflict does break out, the Republicans will be the likely political beneficiaries. The uncertainties of the current situation do not exclude (for example) the orchestration of some kind of border incident to elicit an Iranian overreaction, thus leading to a major conflict; or a provocation by obliging elements of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Both are plausible, though neither is likely - another "Gulf of Tonkin" incident would be just too obvious, and a certain recovery of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's position might caution rather than incite the more intransigent forces among Revolutionary Guard supporters from seeking early confrontation with the United States. Whether the elections to the majlis (parliament) on 14 March 2008 affects Ahmadinejad's political room for manoeuvre, or the wider balance of power inside Iran, remains to be seen. TheIsraeli factorA vital component in this assessment of the military-strategic-political equation following Admiral Fallon's departure is Israel. What do its leaders want to do, think they can do, and seek to make happen with regard to Iran? Its extensive use of force in Gaza - in which over a a hundred Palestinians were killed in the five day to 3 March 2008 - may be part of a process of ratcheting up regional tensions (see Kaveh L Afrasiabi, "Israel raises the ante against Iran", Asia Times, 14 March 2008). Iran's increasing regional status, combined with a frank Israeli disbelief in the conclusions of the NIE assessment, means that there is real concern in the Ehud Olmert government that Iran cannot be stopped in its nuclear pursuits by diplomatic or economic means alone. Israeli observers are as uncertain as any others about the outcome of the United States election. Of the three possible victors, John McCain and Hillary Clinton are broadly pro-Israel (though lacking the "end days" mentality of George W Bush and some of his key supporters, which can envisage a confrontation with Iran and other enemies of Israel as part of God's plan). Barack Obama has less of a known, reliable profile on Israel and its policies in the region, and there is for some the worry that if elected he might weaken the US's unstinting pro-Israel stance (though the Democrats' leading contender is covering his bases; see "Obama calls Livni, back's Israel's right for self-defense" [Ynet, 11 March 2008]). Israel has not always had such conflictual relations with Iran as at present (see Trita Parsi, "The Iran-Israel cold war", 28 October 2005). But the dangers of the current period are palpable, and calculable: for Israel, the time for a war with Iran ends in November 2008. Before then, any kind of Israeli air attack on Iran's nuclear facilities would result in Iranian action against US units in Iraq, especially by the Revolutionary Guard. This would be certain to invite a much greater US military assault that would cripple Iran to Israel's advantage. A unilateral Israeli move might not be hugely popular across the United States (and an opinion-poll in December 2007 found that two-thirds of Israelis would also oppose this course); but if it followed major Hamas or Hizbollah actions against Israel, then it could be represented as pre-empting a larger but linked threat. What might cause such actions? More Israeli military operations as or more intensive than those seen in Gaza could well do it. The moving finger If - to continue the scenario planning - there is to be a war with Iran this year, instigated by Israel, two key factors are relevant: * It would aid John McCain, the Republican candidate in the election* It would need, in order to have this effect, to be started before the beginning of November.None of this makes war a certainty or even highly probable. But it is worth noting here that US neo-conservatives - a reliable bellweather of political sentiment among those who will make the key decisions over whether to attack Iran - are deeply concerned about Iran's current diplomatic manoeuvres. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's much-publicised welcome in Baghdad during his visit of 2-3 March was hard enough, as it underlined the developing links between Iran and Iraq (see "The war over there", 3 March 2008); equally tough for the neocons to witness has been the high-profile visit to Tehran by the Indonesian president, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono on 11-12 March. This followed Indonesia's abstention in the vote in the United Nations Security Council on the third tranche of sanctions against Iran (see "Islamic world can become a global power", Tehran Times, 12 March 2008); it has resulted in multiple agreements between the two countries, thus giving Iran another link to east Asia to complement its extensive relationship with China. From a neo-conservative perspective, the prospect of George W Bush leaving office in circumstances where Iran is a rising power with nuclear potential is just not acceptable. Admiral Fallon's resignation does not make a huge difference, yet it removes one irritant from the scene. That alone makes a war with Iran marginally more likely. But the real determinant remains the Israeli government and what it chooses to do in the next six months.Paul Rogers is professor of peace studies at Bradford University, northern England. He has been writing a weekly column on global security on openDemocracy since 26 September 2001

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